A fleet’s turnover rate is a lot like a check-engine light: It tells you something is happening, but not what’s driving it or what it may ultimately cost.
Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, and Matt Camden of the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute join experts from TrueNorth and Scopelitis Transportation Consulting on the TN Truck Thought podcast to examine when turnover becomes more than a staffing metric.
According to Costello, for-hire truckload driver turnover was running at an annualized 68% to 69% in the first half of 2026. That benchmark provides perspective, while individual fleet results vary based on freight mix, hiring practices and driver experience.
“There are absolutely fleets out there that still have over 100% turnover,” Costello says.
The overall turnover rate is only a starting point. To better understand what’s behind it, consider:
Those patterns matter beyond retention. Matt Camden cites Virginia Tech Transportation Institute research showing that drivers who appeared unfamiliar with a route, directions or vehicle were 16 times more likely to experience a crash or near-crash.
That initial learning curve doesn’t disappear with experience behind the wheel. A driver still has to learn the fleet’s equipment, customers and expectations, adding another period of adjustment each time the operation starts over with someone new.
The cost of replacing a driver continues well after the hire. Costello points to training, orientation, truck downtime, lost loads and reduced productivity during the transition.
John Biblis of TrueNorth encourages fleets to consider when the investment in a new driver begins to pay off:
“What is your cost to onboard a driver and how long does it take to get them to profitability?”
A turnover rate can start the conversation. The more valuable insight comes from understanding who is leaving, when they leave, what happens next and what the business takes on each time a driver must be replaced.
Watch or listen to the full TN Truck Thought episode for a closer look at the true cost of turnover.