New federal rules on non-domicile CDLs and enforcement crackdowns on drivers’ English language proficiency are creating significant angst in the trucking industry. When coupled with stubborn economic uncertainty, many wonder how this will all impact their business in the coming weeks and months.
As a featured guest on the TN Truck Thought podcast, Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Transportation Intelligence, delivers a data-backed perspective that cuts through industry noise and speculation to deliver a reasoned economic forecast on the impact of recent events.
English language proficiency (ELP) enforcement has intensified, sidelining thousands of drivers who fall short of federal standards. FTR estimates about 25,000 drivers could be placed out of service annually. Should these numbers hold up over time, with 3.5 million active Class 8 drivers in the U.S., that impact is likely too small to shift the overall market capacity.
Federal policy changes affecting who can obtain a non-domiciled CDL could disrupt fleet capacity and be a market mover, with nearly 200,000 licenses potentially in question. While the impact may be significant, limited data makes it hard to measure now.
FTR analysts are monitoring the market closely but haven’t adjusted their forecasts...yet, citing no signs of tightening. Capacity still currently outpaces demand in the spot market, where loads are booked on a short-term basis rather than through long-term contracts.
Despite a prolonged freight downturn, many small carriers remain active due to low overhead, more flexible operations and digital freight access. That resilience may be delaying a market capacity correction.
“There’s a belief that enforcement will tighten capacity and improve rates,” Vise said. “That belief might be keeping some carriers in the market longer than they should be.”
While the industry isn’t in crisis, growth remains elusive.
P. Sean Garney of Scopelitis Transportation Consulting noted, “We’re not in freefall. We’re just stuck. The market isn’t getting worse, but it’s not getting better either.”
This stagnation, coupled with tariff and trade policy by the Trump Administration is creating uncertainty. Many carriers are holding on, hoping for a rebound. But without a clear catalyst, the wait continues.
Signs point to a slow recovery in 2025, supported by tax relief, a potential housing rebound and ongoing domestic manufacturing investment. Flatbed and specialized freight could benefit most, particularly from infrastructure and data center projects.
“We’re not forecasting a boom,” Vise said. “But we do think the industry will be stronger a year from now. I believe trucking will be significantly stronger than today, though not at 2021 levels.”
The trucking industry faces uncertainty from regulatory changes, economic headwinds and evolving market behavior. While enforcement actions may not move the market immediately, their long-term impact, alongside broader trends, could reshape capacity and competition in the months ahead.